The narrative in many service businesses is simple: “If we just had more leads, we’d grow faster.”

But when we combine ESAM operational data with MARC scenario modeling across our client base, a different story emerges: for a growing share of companies, capacity, not leads, is what constrains growth.

This is happening against a backdrop where demand for home services remains resilient and, in some segments, continues to grow. Recent analyses expect the global home services market to grow at a compounded rate of around 19% annually through the mid-2020s, and consumer surveys show steady spend on maintenance and improvement even in uncertain macro environments. 

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1. What the ESAM data shows

Looking at 12,500+ jobs across ESAM-connected accounts between 2023 and 2025, MARC modeling highlights three patterns:

• At least 62% of accounts reached periods where crew utilization exceeded 85% for three or more consecutive months.

• In those same periods, lead volume continued to grow, but close rates plateaued or fell, as scheduling backlog increased.

• When backlog pushed beyond 14–21 days, cancellation and reschedule rates rose by 11–18%, eroding the benefit of higher lead volume.

In simple terms: marketing is still working—but operations can’t always keep up.

2. The cost of “over-marketing” without operational readiness

External benchmarks suggest average lead-to-sale rates sit in the low single digits, and cost-per-lead in home services has increased for many advertisers. When a business pours more budget into acquisition without investing in capacity, three things tend to happen:

1. Scheduling stretches out, making the business less competitive.

2. Staff burnout increases, especially in peak seasons.

3. Profit margin volatility grows, as overtime and rushed jobs increase rework.

Our MARC simulations show that, for many mid-market service businesses, allocating the next dollar to capacity or process improvement often produces more sustainable profit growth than allocating it to pure marketing.

3. Capacity-first growth planning

Using MARC, we run forward-looking scenarios that tie headcount, crew structure, and cycle times to revenue and margin. In a typical engagement, we help owners answer questions like:

• “If demand grows 15% next year, how many additional crews—or subcontractor days—do we need?”

• “What happens to our margin if we keep existing headcount but invest in workflow automation?”

• “At what point does adding another dispatcher or coordinator pay for itself?”

Across modeled scenarios, businesses that invested in capacity and systems first, then increased marketing spend tended to see:

• Higher job completion rates (fewer cancellations or lost jobs due to delays),

• Smoother cash flow, and

• Less operational chaos in peak seasons.

4. Strategic implication

For many owner-led companies, the next phase of growth will be defined not by “Who gets the most leads?” but by:

“Who can turn demand into completed, profitable work the most efficiently?”

In that environment, platforms like ESAM and forecasting tools like MARC play a dual role: they help teams capture demand and ensure that operations, staffing, and scheduling can support the growth they’re chasing.

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Methodology: Analysis of anonymized ESAM scheduling, job completion, and utilization data across 17 clients, combined with MARC forward-looking scenarios run between March 2023 and October 2025. Utilization thresholds and backlog windows are generalized ranges; specific results vary by trade, geography, and seasonality.